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置顶与许多中国风险投资人不同，我和我的合伙人克里斯不会投资于竞争对手。投资竞争对手是风险投资人能做的最不忠诚和不专注的事情。它显示出完全缺乏信念，并且是懦弱的行为。
一旦我们选择了创始团队，我们就会完全承诺给他们，并确保他们有赢得的最佳机会。对我们来说，忠诚和完全专注是世界一流伙伴关系的基础。即使我们最终错了，错失了赚钱的机会。我们不想投资于Robinhood、Manus、Plaud、Qbit或Wanaka的竞争对手。当我们给你开支票时，那就是我们的承诺。坚持到底。(Grok translation)
Unlike a lot of VCs in China, my partner Chris and I do not invest in competitors. Investing in competitors is the most disloyal and unfocused thing a VC can do. It shows a total lack of conviction and is spineless behavior.
Once we pick a founding team, we commit to them entirely and make sure they have the best chance of winning. To us, loyalty and total focus is the foundation of a world-class partnership. Even if we end up being wrong and leave money on the table. We don’t want to invest in Robinhood, Manus, Plaud, Qbit, or Wanaka competitors. When we write you a check that’s our promise. In it until the end.
一旦我们选择了创始团队，我们就会完全承诺给他们，并确保他们有赢得的最佳机会。对我们来说，忠诚和完全专注是世界一流伙伴关系的基础。即使我们最终错了，错失了赚钱的机会。我们不想投资于Robinhood、Manus、Plaud、Qbit或Wanaka的竞争对手。当我们给你开支票时，那就是我们的承诺。坚持到底。(Grok translation)
Unlike a lot of VCs in China, my partner Chris and I do not invest in competitors. Investing in competitors is the most disloyal and unfocused thing a VC can do. It shows a total lack of conviction and is spineless behavior.
Once we pick a founding team, we commit to them entirely and make sure they have the best chance of winning. To us, loyalty and total focus is the foundation of a world-class partnership. Even if we end up being wrong and leave money on the table. We don’t want to invest in Robinhood, Manus, Plaud, Qbit, or Wanaka competitors. When we write you a check that’s our promise. In it until the end.
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当风险投资人（VC）谈起「traction」（进展/势头）时，只说融资轮次，而不是客户 traction，那就别再跟他们聊了。
这是一种毫无意义的指标，对当前的创业环境有毒，但大家却都对它痴迷不已。
融资并不是什么成就。创始人其实是在把控制权交给那些很可能比自己更笨、激励机制更差的投资者。这是一种必要的恶（necessary evil），而不是值得庆祝的时刻。只有极少数情况下，创始人才能找到真正优秀的合作伙伴，但这只是例外，而非普遍情况。
我们应该谈什么？留存下来的付费用户 + 高 NPS。就这么简单！这才是最重要的事情！
When VCs talk about traction in terms of fundraising rounds instead of customer traction, stop talking to them. This is a useless metric that is poisonous to the current startup environment, yet everyone is so obsessed with it.
Fundraising is not an achievement. Founders are literally giving control to investors who are probably dumber than them with worse incentives than them. It is a necessary evil not a celebratory moment. In very rare cases founders will find great partners but that is the exception to the rule, not the general case.
What should we talk about? Retained monetized users with high NPS. That’s it! That’s the most important thing!
这是一种毫无意义的指标，对当前的创业环境有毒，但大家却都对它痴迷不已。
融资并不是什么成就。创始人其实是在把控制权交给那些很可能比自己更笨、激励机制更差的投资者。这是一种必要的恶（necessary evil），而不是值得庆祝的时刻。只有极少数情况下，创始人才能找到真正优秀的合作伙伴，但这只是例外，而非普遍情况。
我们应该谈什么？留存下来的付费用户 + 高 NPS。就这么简单！这才是最重要的事情！
When VCs talk about traction in terms of fundraising rounds instead of customer traction, stop talking to them. This is a useless metric that is poisonous to the current startup environment, yet everyone is so obsessed with it.
Fundraising is not an achievement. Founders are literally giving control to investors who are probably dumber than them with worse incentives than them. It is a necessary evil not a celebratory moment. In very rare cases founders will find great partners but that is the exception to the rule, not the general case.
What should we talk about? Retained monetized users with high NPS. That’s it! That’s the most important thing!
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我突然想到，要了解针对美国白人中年男性的营销方式，现在其实非常容易沉浸其中。首先——找到相关播放列表，其次在 TikTok 和 Instagram 上观看那些“Remember who you are white boy”视频。几乎是完美的时代胶囊。
It occurred to me that one of the best ways to understand marketing to white middle aged men in the US, it’s actually quite easy to immerse yourself these days. First - find playlists, second watch the “Remember who you are white boy” videos in tiktok and instagram. Almost perfect time capsules.
It occurred to me that one of the best ways to understand marketing to white middle aged men in the US, it’s actually quite easy to immerse yourself these days. First - find playlists, second watch the “Remember who you are white boy” videos in tiktok and instagram. Almost perfect time capsules.
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社会迟早得做出决定：究竟是推崇技术卓越更重要，还是人的卓越更重要。我们已经有一阵子在把叙事从“以人为中心”转向“以技术为中心”，我相信这种转变可能会发生剧烈的改变。
我最近一直在思考计划经济，以及在那些时期，体育运动员、宇航员和艺术是如何被大力推崇的——最近的例子就是苏联时期。
有很多东西值得好好想想。
Society will need to decide at some point if championing technical excellence is more important than human excellence. We gave been shifting the narrative for a while from human to technical and I believe that might change dramatically. I’ve been thinking a lot about managed economies and how athletics, astronauts, and the arts were championed during these times - the most recent example being during the Soviet Union. A lot to think about.
我最近一直在思考计划经济，以及在那些时期，体育运动员、宇航员和艺术是如何被大力推崇的——最近的例子就是苏联时期。
有很多东西值得好好想想。
Society will need to decide at some point if championing technical excellence is more important than human excellence. We gave been shifting the narrative for a while from human to technical and I believe that might change dramatically. I’ve been thinking a lot about managed economies and how athletics, astronauts, and the arts were championed during these times - the most recent example being during the Soviet Union. A lot to think about.
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retardmaxxing gaining speed with Marc Andreesen referencing it.
Founders in China, especially ones with strong academic backgrounds, should take this way of operating seriously. Stop overthinking.
Founders in China, especially ones with strong academic backgrounds, should take this way of operating seriously. Stop overthinking.
https://x.com/a16z/status/2039028447704654220?s=20
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the amount of machine learning and analytics claude will just throw at user data now is totally insane. new favorite activity.
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賭博是道德腐敗，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 並非有道德的公司。人們慶祝他們財務成功時，並未考慮到賭博的上癮本質，以及它可能對人們造成多大的傷害。這聽起來可能很奇怪，因為這話出自一位創建 Robinhood 的人之口，但零和遊戲與像美國股市這樣具正期望值的市場有本質上的不同。我很難過看到 Robinhood 在其平台上新增了這類產品。
此外，在美國，賭博的興起是一種監管套利。許多州已將其禁止，因為選民認為這對他們有負面影響。之後，賭博公司在一場與聯邦監管的 CFTC（商品期貨交易委員會）的訴訟中勝訴，認定「預測市場合約」實際上是金融工具，因此州級監管不適用。現在有正在進行的訴訟試圖推翻這一裁決，但在此期間，選民和各州已無法掌控。
我不介意朋友之間的賭博，但那些促成賭博的公司從中獲利，這讓我非常反感。他們的動機就是讓人上癮。
Gambling is moral rot and Kalshi and Polymarket are not ethical companies. People celebrating their financial success are not considering the addictive nature of gambling and how badly it can affect people. This might sound strange coming from someone who built Robinhood, but there is something very different about zero-sum games than positive EV markets like the US stock market. I’m sad to see that Robinhood has added these types of products to its platform.
Furthermore in the US, the rise of gambling is a regulatory arbitrage. Many states have banned it because the voters agreed it was a negative impact for them. Then, the gambling companies won a lawsuit with the CFTC, which is federally regulated, that “prediction market contracts” were in fact financial instruments and that state regulation would not apply. There are now ongoing lawsuits to fight this ruling, but in the meantime, voters and states are not in control.
I don’t mind gambling amongst friends but the profiting of companies that facilitate gambling bothers me a lot. Their incentive is addiction.
此外，在美國，賭博的興起是一種監管套利。許多州已將其禁止，因為選民認為這對他們有負面影響。之後，賭博公司在一場與聯邦監管的 CFTC（商品期貨交易委員會）的訴訟中勝訴，認定「預測市場合約」實際上是金融工具，因此州級監管不適用。現在有正在進行的訴訟試圖推翻這一裁決，但在此期間，選民和各州已無法掌控。
我不介意朋友之間的賭博，但那些促成賭博的公司從中獲利，這讓我非常反感。他們的動機就是讓人上癮。
Gambling is moral rot and Kalshi and Polymarket are not ethical companies. People celebrating their financial success are not considering the addictive nature of gambling and how badly it can affect people. This might sound strange coming from someone who built Robinhood, but there is something very different about zero-sum games than positive EV markets like the US stock market. I’m sad to see that Robinhood has added these types of products to its platform.
Furthermore in the US, the rise of gambling is a regulatory arbitrage. Many states have banned it because the voters agreed it was a negative impact for them. Then, the gambling companies won a lawsuit with the CFTC, which is federally regulated, that “prediction market contracts” were in fact financial instruments and that state regulation would not apply. There are now ongoing lawsuits to fight this ruling, but in the meantime, voters and states are not in control.
I don’t mind gambling amongst friends but the profiting of companies that facilitate gambling bothers me a lot. Their incentive is addiction.
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