也遇到了同样的问题，但感觉不是模型基础能力不足，更像是在产品设计上，在选中deepseek的搜索模式时，团队的训练和设置倾向于让他尽可能多地基于搜索到头几项的结果进行回答；本质上是使用的搜索引擎能力不足。或许在网页搜索阶段增加筛选的步骤，或者让模型先思考再对应寻找网页，能有所改善？

👍，个人认为可能第二种逻辑（先思考再搜索）会更好一点。

ChatGPT o1:

Jerome Powell and Alan Greenspan both served as Chairs of the Federal Reserve, but they approached monetary policy and communication in distinct ways. Here’s a comparison of their respective styles:

1. Background and Professional Profiles

Alan Greenspan (Fed Chair, 1987–2006)

Academic/Economic Background: Although not a “pure academic” by modern standards, Greenspan had a deep background in economics, working as a private economic consultant before joining the Fed. He had studied under well-known economists and was influenced by Ayn Rand early in his career.
Ideological Leanings: Often associated with a strong belief in free markets. His reluctance to impose stringent regulation reflected his view that markets generally self-correct.
Legacy: Nicknamed the “Maestro,” he led the Fed through major economic cycles such as the 1987 stock market crash, the 1990s tech boom, and the beginnings of the housing bubble.
Jerome Powell (Fed Chair, 2018–Present)

Legal/Policy Background: Unlike Greenspan or Ben Bernanke (an academic economist), Powell is a trained lawyer and former investment banker. He served in various roles at the Treasury and had been a Federal Reserve Governor before becoming Chair.
Pragmatic Approach: Often described as a “consensus builder.” He is less wedded to a specific school of economic theory than some predecessors, instead focusing on real-time data and risk management.
Legacy in Progress: Powell oversaw the Fed’s response to the COVID-19 crisis (including unprecedented emergency measures) and navigated significant inflation challenges starting in 2021–2022.
2. Communication Style

Greenspan

“Fed-Speak” and Opacity: Famous for his cryptic language, once quipping that if people understood what he said, he must have misspoken. Markets often hung on subtle hints in his speeches, making “Greenspanology” a sort of art form among Fed watchers.

Incremental Transparency: Over his long tenure, the Federal Reserve became somewhat more transparent, but Greenspan generally favored careful, measured (and sometimes ambiguous) commentary to avoid roiling markets.
Powell
Plain-Spoken, Direct: Powell’s communication style is more straightforward. He tends to offer clearer, more concise guidance—an evolution that aligns with the broader Fed shift toward greater transparency.

Regular Press Conferences: Under Powell (and to some extent Janet Yellen before him), the Fed has increased the frequency of press briefings and forward guidance, aiming to reduce uncertainty for markets and the public.
3. Policy Framework and Decision-Making
Greenspan

Data-Focused but Ideologically Guided: Relied heavily on data, but his libertarian leanings led him to trust market-based solutions. Famously, he was reluctant to prick potential asset bubbles, believing the fallout from a burst bubble could be managed after the fact.

“Greenspan Put”: A term describing the market’s sense that Greenspan would lower interest rates if equities fell sharply—arguably encouraging risk-taking and contributing to asset bubbles.

Powell
Flexible and Pragmatic: Powell’s decision-making reflects a desire to maintain maximum optionality. He emphasizes data dependence and will shift stance rapidly if conditions change (e.g., the 2018–2019 pivot on rate hikes).
Crisis Management: Powell’s Fed demonstrated willingness to deploy large-scale asset purchases, emergency lending facilities, and direct communication to stabilize markets during the 2020 pandemic. His approach to inflation in subsequent years has included rapid rate hikes once inflationary pressures appeared more than “transitory.”

4. Transparency and Forward Guidance
Greenspan
Less Formal Guidance: In the early years of his tenure, the Fed offered minimal official forward guidance. Decisions were often explained afterward in statements that tended to be terse.

Evolution Over Time: By the end of Greenspan’s tenure, the Fed had begun releasing more detailed statements, but he still preferred not to tie the Fed’s hands with explicit guidance.

Powell

Regular, Detailed Guidance: Under Powell, the Federal Reserve issues clearer statements and press releases explaining policy rationale. Dot plots (introduced before Powell’s chairmanship) and scheduled press briefings are part of a broader commitment to openness.
Market Sensitivity: Markets now closely track not just the policy decisions but also Powell’s language choices in press conferences. The Fed attempts to communicate likely policy paths, subject to economic data.
5. Influence on Market Psychology

Greenspan
Cult of Personality: Greenspan’s stature and cryptic style led to a near-mystique around the Chair’s pronouncements. Some argue this magnified market swings and contributed to the concept of the Fed “backstopping” risk.
Long Tenure: Having been reappointed by presidents from both parties, Greenspan was seen for many years as virtually unassailable and heavily shaped public discourse on monetary policy.

Powell

Team-Oriented Approach: Less of a lone figure than Greenspan; Powell usually stresses the collective work of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Clearer Policy Signals: By aiming to reduce surprises, Powell’s Fed attempts to temper sudden market movements—though significant market swings have still occurred, especially around inflation concerns and rate-hike announcements.
6. Overall Assessment
Greenspan’s Legacy: Known for his measured (at times opaque) communication, long tenure, and market-oriented ideology, Greenspan left a stamp of cautious but ultimately hands-off policy regarding asset bubbles.

Powell’s Ongoing Influence: Powell’s tenure has been defined by crisis management, from COVID-19 to inflationary challenges. His more direct communication style and willingness to pivot policies in response to data reflect a broader Fed shift towards transparency and agile decision-making.
In short, Greenspan was a central figure who preferred guarded communication and minimal direct interference in markets, while Powell leads a more consensus-driven, transparent Fed that uses forward guidance and rapid policy shifts to manage economic and financial conditions.

Deepseek R1 + 联网搜索（前 10 的搜索结果在截图中）：

### Comparison of Jerome Powell’s and Alan Greenspan’s Policy Styles  
The Federal Reserve chairs Jerome Powell and Alan Greenspan have navigated distinct economic landscapes with differing policy styles, shaped by their unique challenges and decision-making approaches. Below is a structured comparison:  

---

#### **1. Economic Context and Globalization**  
- **Greenspan (1987–2006)**:  
  Operated during a period of **globalization’s peak**, marked by free trade expansion (e.g., China’s WTO entry), tech-driven productivity gains, and low inflation due to global resource efficiency. These factors allowed Greenspan to pursue accommodative policies without immediate inflationary risks .  
- **Powell (2018–present)**:  
  Faces **deglobalization headwinds**, including supply chain disruptions (e.g., semiconductor shortages), post-pandemic labor market imbalances, and geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine war, U.S.-China trade). These structural shifts have amplified inflationary pressures, complicating policy calibration .  

---

#### **2. Communication and Flexibility**  
- **Greenspan’s “Artful Ambiguity”**:  
  Known for **“Greenspeak”**—deliberately vague language that allowed policy flexibility. For example, during the 1998 LTCM crisis, he adjusted rates subtly without triggering market panic, maintaining stability through indirect signals .  
- **Powell’s Transparent Forward Guidance**:  
  Emphasizes **clarity in communication**, explicitly outlining rate hike paths and inflation targets. While this reduces market surprises, it limits the Fed’s agility. For instance, explicit guidance in 2022 led to rapid market adjustments, constraining reactive policy shifts .  

---

#### **3. Decision-Making Style**  
- **Greenspan’s Intuitive Pragmatism**:  
  Blended economic expertise with **real-world intuition**, often overriding conventional models. In 1996, he resisted raising rates despite models suggesting inflationary risks, avoiding a premature economic slowdown . His preemptive rate hikes in 1994–1995 achieved a “soft landing” by curbing inflation without stifling growth .  
- **Powell’s Data-Driven Caution**:  
  Prioritizes **statistical rigor**, waiting for clear labor market stabilization before acting. Critics argue this delayed responses to rising inflation in 2021–2022, resulting in aggressive catch-up hikes (e.g., 75-basis-point jumps) and fragmented “stop-and-go” tactics .  

---

#### **4. Crisis Management and Long-Term Risks**  
- **Greenspan’s Aggressive Easing**:  
  Post-9/11 and the dot-com crash, he slashed rates to 1% by 2003, stimulating growth but fueling housing speculation and the 2008 crisis. His focus on mitigating immediate fallout often overshadowed long-term financial stability risks .  
- **Powell’s Balanced Caution**:  
  Learned from past excesses, prioritizing **inflation control without triggering recessions**. His 2022–2023 hikes (to 5.25–5.5%) aimed to temper multi-decade-high inflation while avoiding over-tightening. However, geopolitical and supply chain uncertainties complicate this balance .  

---

#### **5. Market Impact and Legacy**  
- **Greenspan’s “Stability Paradox”**:  
  His era saw **low market volatility** and investor trust in a “Greenspan put,” but prolonged stability bred complacency, contributing to the 2008 crisis .  
- **Powell’s Volatility Trade-Off**:  
  Transparent policies and rapid rate adjustments have increased **short-term market swings**, but some argue this could prevent systemic bubbles by pricing in risks earlier .  

---

### Conclusion  
Greenspan’s tenure was defined by **artful ambiguity and preemptive intuition**, leveraging globalization’s tailwinds. Powell, in contrast, adopts **transparent, data-anchored policies** amid fragmented global dynamics. While Greenspan’s flexibility allowed nimble crisis responses, Powell’s clarity aims to build trust in a more volatile era—though both styles carry trade-offs between stability and adaptability .

Deepseek app 可以深度思考（R1）的同时进行联网搜索，这一点比 ChatGPT o1 要好。

但用了几天后，我发现，通过搜索提供更多的上下文，反而可能会限制模型推理。

倒不是说中文内容的质量如何，而是说搜索提供的上下文束缚了模型思考的方向。

比如 o1 回答中（见截图），有一个方向是关于 Influence on Market Psychology 的，其中提到了 Greenspan 的个人魅力对市场的影响，同时 Powell 则更多依赖集体决策，倾向于给出清晰的政策信号。在 R1 中，这个点基本上没有提到。

一种可能性是，Deepseek 似乎用了国内的不知道哪家搜索引擎，即便我用英文 prompt 也会引用很多中文网页。这些搜索结果的质量不够高。

但也可能单纯是因为，人类过去积累的认知反而成为了 AI 思考的牵绊。

我把两个模型的回复都贴在评论区，感兴趣的朋友可以自行比较。

Platform Thinking / 创造者的思考伙伴 → https://pt.plus

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