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瓦恁
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宁波人
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瓦恁
9天前
在一个播客最后一分钟，tobi说，要记住你现在拥有的一些东西可能都是你童年梦寐以求的
2824
瓦恁
15:19

#408.Clawd 的创造者："我发布我不读的代码"

跨国串门儿计划

20
瓦恁
1天前

PatrickKavanagh: 2025年我们的投资笔记 高信任社会与遵守规则 我们只与年轻人合作，因为他们成长在中国的高信任时代，这让他们更容易组建优秀的国际团队。我们也注意到，这些高信任的创始人通常更遵守规则。但遵守规则也有风险：他们往往错误地认为自己的创意开发过程是有规则可循的（总是寻找公式、研究其他成功创始人），并且认为竞争对手也遵循可预测的规则体系；这两点通常都不正确——但相信存在规则会让人感到舒适和熟悉，所以我们倾向于选择相信它。 我们认识的最优秀的创始人喜欢测试规则，以确认它们是否真实。这样做有很大优势，但对遵守规则的人来说，这非常不舒服。 当你是规则遵守者时，很容易从恐惧出发来运作： • 担心被抄袭的风险 • 不愿展示产品，因为“还没准备好” • 担心投资人的看法 • 担心媒体的评价 • 不敢对自认为重要的人说“不” • 不敢说服团队或推动团队迈出重要步伐 那么该怎么办？最简单的方法是至少意识到自己很可能存在的这种偏见，并在明显出于恐惧而做事时点出来——因为你潜意识里认为规则会决定预设的结果。你越能摆脱从恐惧出发的运作方式，越能主动去验证某条规则，你作为经营者的能力就会越强，因为没有什么比拥有一手信息更能带来信心。 创始人往往不知道什么是好的信号，因此无法自信地做出决策 中国的算法新闻传播，以及全球媒体算法总体上，都对你的世界观有高度毒性——它是你对世界认知中所有缺陷的镜像，这些缺陷可以被利用并货币化。 当你看到与自己相关的内容被放大，比如产品发布在小红书上爆火，你必须意识到这不是现实的公平版本。事实上，它很可能是一种失真的版本，你应该主动摒弃。这很难，因为平台通过社会证明和其他方式让你相信炒作是可信的。但它不可信，你不应该相信。 创始人常常用这种社会证明信号来做商业决策——他们会过度依赖算法将自己的想法或内容推送给平台上的用户群体，并通过分享、点赞和评论获得验证。然而，把这种信号解读为市场验证是完全错误的。事实上，它很可能不是——它只是证明该媒体内容具有吸引力。想象一个极度冒犯和令人反感的产品，它可能卖不出去，但肯定会爆火。我们不能将社交媒体信号解读为市场验证，应该积极阻止团队这样想。一个很真实的例子是像Manus这样完全没有中国客户的团队，却不断被小红书上的产品内容淹没——这本不应该重要，但它让人感觉重要！人们需要主动调整自己对信号的感知，否则注定会追逐幻影。当别人为这样的爆火时刻祝贺你时，你应该简单回复：“这是假的。”并且真的相信这一点。 我们经常听到某位创始人针对美国产品在中国平台爆火，然后从看到这些内容的国内VC那里融到钱，创始人和团队觉得自己取得了成功。事实上，这一切行为中没有任何信号，但许多重要决策却已经做出。伙伴关系已经建立，公司的一部分已经被定价并出售——所有这些都没有任何真正的市场验证。这不是成功，而是用虚假信号做出重大决策。 真正的信号是：你和你的实际客户在同一个房间里，向他们展示真实原型，他们兴奋地问：“我什么时候能买到？”——这样的案例有很多，但本质就是如此。在这些房间之外，世界是算法主导的，事实被严重扭曲成情绪反应，战略方向可能变得极度不明朗。作为创始人，你应该关注团队消费的内容，也要自我觉察。换句话说，追求真相是一种逆向选择，除非你主动追求，否则它不会主动找上你，甚至会被虚假信息取代。最优秀的创始人会放下手机，不再和团队讨论，而是直接打电话或当面与最好的客户交流，伟大的产品文化正是通过这种简单行为建立起来的。 在2026年，当我们看到这些错误和误解时，会更加直接地与创始人沟通——这些是令人不舒服的真相，但远没有犯错本身痛苦。我们也会公开讨论什么是好的信号，并主动提出优秀的市场验证方法，确保这些分析能带来积极的收获。祝大家旅途顺利，希望将许多新友谊转化为老友情谊。 Notes on our time investing in 2025 High trust societies and rule following We talk about how we only work with young people, because they grow up in a high trust era in China, which makes it easier for them to build great international teams. We’ve also noticed that these same high trust founders are generally more rule-following. A risk to rule following behavior, is people mistakenly think that their creative development process is somehow rule based (always looking for a formula, studying other successful founders), and that their competitors also follow a predictable rule-set; both are genernally not true - but the belief that there are rules feels comfortable and familiar so we chose to believe it. The best founders we know like to test rules, to make sure they are real. There’s a lot of advantage there, but its very uncomfortable to do if you are a rule-follower. When you are a rule follower, its easy to operate from a place of fear: - worry about copycat risk - don’t want to show product because its not ready - worried about what investors think - worried about what media thinks - afraid of saying no to people they think are important - afraid to convince team or to push their team to take important steps So what do you do? The easiest thing to do is to at least be self-aware of the bias that you likely have and call out when you are doing things that are clearly from a place of fear - beacuse you subconciously believe that somehow the rules dictacte a predefined outcome. The more you can step out of operating from a place of fear and actively validate a rule, the better you will become as an operator, because there is no source of confidence like having primary information. Founders often don’t know what good signal looks like, and so they cannot confidently make decisions China’s algorithmic news propagation, and globalmedia algorithms in general, are highly toxic to your view of the state of the world - It is a mirror of all of the imperfections in your perception of the world that can be exploited and monetized. When you see signal being amplified about things that you do, such as a viral Xiaohongshu post on a product launch, you have to realize that its not a fair verison of reality. In fact, it is probably a disingenuous version, you should actively dismiss. This is very difficult because platforms convince you through social proof and other methods that the hype is credible. It is not, and you should not believe it. Founders often use this social proof signal to make business decisions - they will over index on an algorithm pushing their idea or content to a population on the platform that shows validation through shares, likes, and comments. However, it is entirely incorrect to interpret this signal as market validation. In fact, it is likely not - it is only validation that the media shared is engaging. Imagine a product that is higly offensive and disgusting, it probably wouldn’t sell, but it would go viral. We cannot interpet social media signal as market validation and we should actively discourage our teams from thinking this way. One very real example is that teams like Manus, who have no Chinese customers, were constantly overwhelmed with XHS content about their product - it shouldn’t matter, but it feels like it should! People neet to practively tune their perception of signals or be doomed to chase shadows. When you are congratulated for such a viral moment, you should simply reply “it is fake.” and believe it. We hear too often that a founder went viral, on a chinese platform, for a US product, and raised money from Chinese VCs who saw that content, and the founder and team feel like they’ve had success. In fact, there is NO SIGNAL in any of this behavior, but many important decisions have been made. Partnerships have been formed, a piece of the company has been priced and sold - everything without any real market validation. This is the opposite of success, this is making big decisions with false signal. Great signal is when you are in a room, with your actual customer, showing them the actual prototype, and they ask excitedly “when can I buy it?” - there are many such cases but this is the essence. Outside of these rooms, the world is algorithmic, facts are deeply skewed to be come emotional responses, and strategic directions can feel incredibly unclear. As a founder, you should be aware of what content your team consumes and you should also be self-aware. Said another way, the pursuit of truth is a case of adverse section, where, unless you pursue it proactively, it will not come to you, and even worse, be replaced with falsehoods. The best founders put down their phones, stop talking to their team, and get on the phone or in a room with their best customers, and great product cultures are build through this simple behavior. This year 2026, we will be more direct with founders when we see these mistakes and misconceptions - they are uncomfortable truths to discuss, but not nearly as painful as the mistakes themselves. We will also have open debates about what good signals look like, and try to proactively suggest great market validation approaches to make sure there are positive takeaways from these analytical exercises. We wish everyone the best of luck on their journeys and hope to turn many new friendships into old.

00
瓦恁
2天前
瓦恁
2天前
瓦恁
2天前

Lauren.Q: Lauren的南宁逛吃指南 最近发现很多朋友要去或正在南宁玩，这个天气去玩非常合适，在此贡献一份本人作为南宁土著的精选美食清单、吃法推荐外加一点玩法介绍。本人从小吃到大，给各位即友参考，排名有先后顺序（推荐优先吃我列出明确分店的，有的品牌其他分店味道不太稳定） # 🍜粉 首先隆重介绍最重要的单品：粉。南宁本地的特色是老友粉和生榨米粉。 - 辉记老友(龙胜街店)：老友粉。邕记在游客饱满后品质下降很多，辉记则一如既往维持着高水平的出品，推荐经典猪杂老友汤粉或老友炒粉，喜欢下水的一定要加粉肠。 - 古源香天天生榨米粉(老水街店)：生榨米粉。我永远的梦中情粉。推荐点大杂烩（所有肉都有），吃法是拌（一定要加柠檬辣椒和大葱辣椒，先少加点），吃到差不多了再加米汤。 - 舒记粉店(七星路店)：老友粉。也变成网红店了，但是儿时滋味仍有存留，而且24小时营业，吃起来很灵活哈 - 仙池八珍粉面(新民路店)：老友粉+生料粉。这一家做法比较清淡，最让人惊艳的是猪杂处理得非常非常嫩，简直是入口即化。 - 黄记米粉(中山路店)：桂林米粉。黄记米粉实际上是南宁口味版的桂林米粉，汤是甜口的，也比较鲜美，推荐点牛腩汤粉 - 黄阿婆·玉兰粉虫店(水街店)：特色是老友炒粉虫，出品略有不稳定，推荐试一次就可以 # 🥟简餐小吃 粉吃腻了的话，可以试试这些小吃： - 连升风味小吃(连升甜品店)：这是一个品类更丰富，味道很古早的小店，推荐 双皮奶、荷叶饭、番茄干捞粉。 - 甘家老牌卷筒粉（建政路店）：卷筒粉。真的是无可挑剔的卷筒粉，多加黄皮酱和辣椒 - 郑千白切(华东路店)：吃腻了碳水可以来这吃肉，都很新鲜，推荐鹅心、鹅肠、隔山肉、凉拌柠檬鸭（一定要老板给柠檬酱）。推荐配着白粥吃，非常非常爽。 - 老嘢扣肉糯米饭（云亭街店）：糯米饭的组成是淋了肉汁的糯米+扣肉+香肠，一点一定要加香肠。 - 梁阿婆廿年老牌扣肉糯米饭：同上 - 老甘粉饺（水街店）：粉饺是一种口感很弹的饺子，最关键是的多加黄皮酱。 # 🍽️正餐餐厅 我个人觉得南宁的餐厅值得推荐的不多，也可能是本地人“下馆子”不多，只推荐这3家： - 808饭堂(华西路店)：南宁人的正餐食堂，聚餐下馆子首选，正宗。推荐甜酒脆皮罗非鱼、炒牛杂/猪杂、粉肠头、车螺汤 - 甘家界牌柠檬鸭(东葛店)：实际上最正宗的是高峰林场店，但是太远，可以选择这一家。就点柠檬鸭即可。 - 万国酒家：起源于1940s南宁早茶，推荐指数略低，但环境比较好，可以尝一下本地早茶。 # 🍖夜宵/大排档 可以直接去建政路/中山路吃夜宵，下面是推荐的店： - 南铁拉婶(南铁总店)：推荐田螺煲、和这家几乎所有的烧烤。田螺，南宁的大田螺，太鲜美了。 - 方少三口井·百色烧烤(总店)：不用跑其他城市就可以吃到猪眼睛了，只要你能接受，非常稀罕的美味。其他烧烤单品做得也很好。 - 建政路夜市：挑人多的地方排就对了 # 🥤奶茶 南宁有一条奶茶街（真的），你可以在这条街上喝到所有本地品牌的奶茶。 - 阿嬷手作任意店：都到南宁了，阿嬷手作不排队，来一杯吧，推荐米麻薯 - 大维奶茶任意店：90后的古早味，喝了就知道，推荐至少喝一次哈哈，奶绿/奶红+波霸。 - 察理王子任意店：同上 - 水牛奶+(锦华店)：广西特色水牛奶正宗真的奶无添加，是广西农垦集团自己做的。推荐单喝新鲜水牛奶，或可以加一些小料 # ☕️咖啡 - 往返咖啡（华强路）：我在南宁喝过的咖啡不多，这家蛮惊艳的，出品稳定价格便宜，去之前看好营业时间 # 🎨其他特色活动推荐 - 茶麸洗头：点评上挑一个离你近的评分高的店，推荐姜洗，你会获得一个蓬松的发型，一天都辣辣暖暖的头皮 - 龙脊灸：特色按摩（会在你背上点燃姜片），能接受的再尝试哈哈 # 🏖️景点/可逛之处 只说市内的： - 青秀山：可说是南宁唯一一个大的自然景点，当做踏青去是很好的 - 三街两巷：人造市中心小古城，逛一逛就可以了 - 七星路：我觉得南宁版的安福路街区吧，可以逛一逛喝喝咖啡吃吃甜点 - 人民公园/南湖公园：南宁人爱去的公园，大，绿化好 - 民生广场/邕江畔：适合晚上散步，有一个夜市 - 交易场：如果路过的话可以去看看，非常古早的批发市场，很神奇地出片，如果会淘可买到一些不错的小物件 - 东盟相关景点：不太推荐 OK，搞定！想到了再更新，玩得开心各位，吃到好的玩到好的记得发即刻啊！

00
瓦恁
2天前
过去几年，我和其他做企业的朋友吃饭聊天都会问同一个问题，这几年自己最喜欢又尊重的行业里的朋友是谁，答案经常是米哈游的大伟哥

👇这是参加小宇宙大赏之夜前的大伟哥，活动六点才开始，我们距离会场才100米，饭后时间才5:40分，他担心我们迟到飞奔去上个厕所
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1712
瓦恁
3天前
瓦恁
3天前
节后想加入 AI 应用公司的可以联系我，xidong@mediocre.app。现在旗下有 ChatHub、Chatbox、kulikuli 、eimi、otterlife 等 AI 应用

日token消耗量在千亿规模
3055
瓦恁
3天前
瓦恁
3天前
每次看pony内部发言还是挺感触的，本分、有危机意识又直言不讳，每年这个时候也是我加仓0700的时候
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