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新的一岁也要好好健身 注重真心健康 管理好自己的资金和流动性 内心平静快乐向内生长 认真工作 保持学习 向内生长哦
👗 House of CB
🍴 Ritz Calton Geneva
新的一岁也要好好健身 注重真心健康 管理好自己的资金和流动性 内心平静快乐向内生长 认真工作 保持学习 向内生长哦
👗 House of CB
🍴 Ritz Calton Geneva
24 60
📌 1. What happened
This chart, published by BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, shows the current valuation percentile of various asset classes compared to their historical norm. The bars show where each asset class stands today (May 2025), while the dots show where they stood one year ago (May 2024).
The chart splits assets into Fixed Income (left) and Equities (right). The percentile indicates how expensive or cheap each asset is relative to its own history.
⸻
📌 2. What do these indexes reflect
• The higher the percentile, the more expensive the asset looks by standard measures (e.g., yield spread for bonds, P/E for equities).
• Many US assets (like US Treasuries, US High Yield, SPX) and Developed Markets Equities are trading at the higher end of their historical range — meaning investors are paying a premium.
• Some EM (Emerging Market) debt and Euro Credit appear closer to average or slightly cheap by historical standards.
• For equities, the US, France, and Australia are near the “expensive” side, while EM and some European equities are cheaper relatively.
• The move from last year’s dots shows how valuations have shifted higher over the past year as markets rallied.
⸻
📌 3. How might the market react
• High valuations mean assets are more vulnerable to corrections if investor confidence is shaken (as noted for the US and India earlier in the year).
• If rates stay higher for longer, or earnings disappoint, highly valued assets may underperform.
• Conversely, the resilience in US and India markets suggests strong risk appetite — SPX and Nasdaq are pushing to new all-time highs, showing momentum remains for now.
• A valuation mismatch could lead to rotation: investors might switch from expensive US assets into relatively cheaper EM or European assets if macro conditions shift.
⸻
📌 4. How investors should act
• Be cautious about chasing expensive assets purely for momentum — high valuations can amplify downside risks.
• Diversify across regions and asset classes to avoid being overexposed to overpriced markets.
• Watch macro signals that could trigger repricing — e.g., shifts in Fed/ECB policy, earnings revisions, or geopolitical events.
• Use tactical hedges or alternatives (like quality credit, TIPS) to manage downside risk if valuations stay stretched.
• Stay flexible: elevated valuations don’t necessarily mean immediate reversal, but they reduce the margin of safety for new investments.
⸻
✅ Summary:
Valuations alone do not predict near-term returns, but they set the risk context. Multi-asset investors should balance upside participation with careful risk management when assets look expensive across the board.
This chart, published by BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, shows the current valuation percentile of various asset classes compared to their historical norm. The bars show where each asset class stands today (May 2025), while the dots show where they stood one year ago (May 2024).
The chart splits assets into Fixed Income (left) and Equities (right). The percentile indicates how expensive or cheap each asset is relative to its own history.
⸻
📌 2. What do these indexes reflect
• The higher the percentile, the more expensive the asset looks by standard measures (e.g., yield spread for bonds, P/E for equities).
• Many US assets (like US Treasuries, US High Yield, SPX) and Developed Markets Equities are trading at the higher end of their historical range — meaning investors are paying a premium.
• Some EM (Emerging Market) debt and Euro Credit appear closer to average or slightly cheap by historical standards.
• For equities, the US, France, and Australia are near the “expensive” side, while EM and some European equities are cheaper relatively.
• The move from last year’s dots shows how valuations have shifted higher over the past year as markets rallied.
⸻
📌 3. How might the market react
• High valuations mean assets are more vulnerable to corrections if investor confidence is shaken (as noted for the US and India earlier in the year).
• If rates stay higher for longer, or earnings disappoint, highly valued assets may underperform.
• Conversely, the resilience in US and India markets suggests strong risk appetite — SPX and Nasdaq are pushing to new all-time highs, showing momentum remains for now.
• A valuation mismatch could lead to rotation: investors might switch from expensive US assets into relatively cheaper EM or European assets if macro conditions shift.
⸻
📌 4. How investors should act
• Be cautious about chasing expensive assets purely for momentum — high valuations can amplify downside risks.
• Diversify across regions and asset classes to avoid being overexposed to overpriced markets.
• Watch macro signals that could trigger repricing — e.g., shifts in Fed/ECB policy, earnings revisions, or geopolitical events.
• Use tactical hedges or alternatives (like quality credit, TIPS) to manage downside risk if valuations stay stretched.
• Stay flexible: elevated valuations don’t necessarily mean immediate reversal, but they reduce the margin of safety for new investments.
⸻
✅ Summary:
Valuations alone do not predict near-term returns, but they set the risk context. Multi-asset investors should balance upside participation with careful risk management when assets look expensive across the board.
4 00
The chart illustrates the performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) price (white line) and its forward P/E ratio (orange line) over the past year.
After reaching a significant low in April 2025, the index price has not only fully recovered but hit new highs. However, the valuation, measured by the forward P/E ratio, has only recovered about half of its drop from the same period.
⸻
Why:
The key driver behind this divergence is strong corporate earnings growth.
The P/E ratio equals Price divided by Earnings — so when earnings expand strongly, they offset the impact of higher prices on the multiple.
This means that the recent rally has been largely supported by fundamental earnings growth rather than pure multiple expansion.
As Wei Li points out, robust earnings and the AI-driven performance of mega-cap tech names (“Mag7”) explain why valuations have lagged behind price action.
⸻
How the market reacted:
Market participants have continued to bid up US equities, especially tech and AI-related large caps, pushing index levels to all-time highs.
However, because the earnings base has improved so significantly, the forward P/E ratio has only partially rebounded.
This suggests the rally has a healthier fundamental basis compared to a pure sentiment-driven or bubble-like run-up.
Additionally, the concentration of returns in a handful of big tech names is a defining feature of this phase of the AI transformation.
Rather than a weakness, this concentration reflects the market’s confidence in the earnings power and leadership of these dominant players.
⸻
Key takeaway:
✅ Strong earnings growth is underpinning the rally.
✅ Valuation expansion has been moderate, implying fundamentals rather than hype.
✅ High concentration in mega-cap tech is likely to persist as AI transformation deepens.
⸻
How to conclude:
“From an investment or strategy perspective, this setup makes US large-cap tech still attractive in the medium term, provided earnings momentum holds up and AI capital expenditure continues to support future growth.”
After reaching a significant low in April 2025, the index price has not only fully recovered but hit new highs. However, the valuation, measured by the forward P/E ratio, has only recovered about half of its drop from the same period.
⸻
Why:
The key driver behind this divergence is strong corporate earnings growth.
The P/E ratio equals Price divided by Earnings — so when earnings expand strongly, they offset the impact of higher prices on the multiple.
This means that the recent rally has been largely supported by fundamental earnings growth rather than pure multiple expansion.
As Wei Li points out, robust earnings and the AI-driven performance of mega-cap tech names (“Mag7”) explain why valuations have lagged behind price action.
⸻
How the market reacted:
Market participants have continued to bid up US equities, especially tech and AI-related large caps, pushing index levels to all-time highs.
However, because the earnings base has improved so significantly, the forward P/E ratio has only partially rebounded.
This suggests the rally has a healthier fundamental basis compared to a pure sentiment-driven or bubble-like run-up.
Additionally, the concentration of returns in a handful of big tech names is a defining feature of this phase of the AI transformation.
Rather than a weakness, this concentration reflects the market’s confidence in the earnings power and leadership of these dominant players.
⸻
Key takeaway:
✅ Strong earnings growth is underpinning the rally.
✅ Valuation expansion has been moderate, implying fundamentals rather than hype.
✅ High concentration in mega-cap tech is likely to persist as AI transformation deepens.
⸻
How to conclude:
“From an investment or strategy perspective, this setup makes US large-cap tech still attractive in the medium term, provided earnings momentum holds up and AI capital expenditure continues to support future growth.”
9 10
Day 2
This is a Bloomberg commodity chart (CO1 Comdty) tracking the Brent crude oil front-month futures, and it shows the oil price movements over the past month (May 27 – June 23).
⸻
📉 Chart Summary:
• Current Price: $70.28
• Daily Drop: -6.73 (-8.74%)
• Price High: $79.15 (June 23)
• Price Low: $63.65 (May 27)
• Net Change from May 26 Close ($64.74): +8.56%
The chart shows a sharp rise in oil price in mid-June, followed by a sudden drop near the end—possibly indicating a fade in the geopolitical premium or profit-taking after a speculative rally.
🔁 Oil Price → Inflation Transmission:
• Oil is a key input (transportation, production, heating).
• A sustained 10% supply-driven rise in oil typically leads to:
• 📈 +0.2% to 0.3% increase in global GDP inflation
• 📉 -0.2% to 0.3% drag on global GDP growth
• If the oil price rise is demand-driven, it may reflect a healthy economy, but supply-driven shocks (e.g. war, OPEC cuts) are inflationary and growth-negative.
The recent chart shows a sharp oil rally, likely due to geopolitical or supply-driven reasons, but it was quickly faded. If oil stays high, it can push CPI inflation up by ~0.2–0.3% and slow GDP growth. But since this rally wasn’t sustained, inflationary impact may be limited. Oil is a key macro indicator as it reflects both geopolitical risks and consumer cost pressures.
This is a Bloomberg commodity chart (CO1 Comdty) tracking the Brent crude oil front-month futures, and it shows the oil price movements over the past month (May 27 – June 23).
⸻
📉 Chart Summary:
• Current Price: $70.28
• Daily Drop: -6.73 (-8.74%)
• Price High: $79.15 (June 23)
• Price Low: $63.65 (May 27)
• Net Change from May 26 Close ($64.74): +8.56%
The chart shows a sharp rise in oil price in mid-June, followed by a sudden drop near the end—possibly indicating a fade in the geopolitical premium or profit-taking after a speculative rally.
🔁 Oil Price → Inflation Transmission:
• Oil is a key input (transportation, production, heating).
• A sustained 10% supply-driven rise in oil typically leads to:
• 📈 +0.2% to 0.3% increase in global GDP inflation
• 📉 -0.2% to 0.3% drag on global GDP growth
• If the oil price rise is demand-driven, it may reflect a healthy economy, but supply-driven shocks (e.g. war, OPEC cuts) are inflationary and growth-negative.
The recent chart shows a sharp oil rally, likely due to geopolitical or supply-driven reasons, but it was quickly faded. If oil stays high, it can push CPI inflation up by ~0.2–0.3% and slow GDP growth. But since this rally wasn’t sustained, inflationary impact may be limited. Oil is a key macro indicator as it reflects both geopolitical risks and consumer cost pressures.
3 00
（重新开始准备一些market sense的东西，希望能把这个做成一个daily坚持的东西
Is INFLATION good now or is INFLATION VOLATILITY just abnormally high (chart)? Core inflation and wage are painting starkly different pictures with the gap between the two near widest in 4 years. Tariff uncertainty and supply shocks from structural transformations including #ai build-out, #aging population and #geopolitics rewiring mean we cannot be out of woods with inflation risk. See notes taking stock of macro and why the #Fed is unlikely to promise cuts in the near term, in comment.
1. Rolling Standard Deviation
• A “rolling” or “moving” standard deviation looks at how much data fluctuates within a moving time window.
• 1-year rolling means: at each point in time, it calculates the standard deviation over the past 12 months.
• 3-year rolling means: standard deviation over the past 36 months.
• Purpose: shows how volatile inflation is over time.
• Interpretation: A higher value means inflation has become more unstable or unpredictable.
⸻
2. CPI Excluding Shelter
• CPI = Consumer Price Index, a common measure of inflation.
• “Core services CPI” includes services like healthcare, education, transportation, etc.
• Excluding shelter removes housing-related costs like rent and homeownership costs.
• Why exclude shelter?
• Housing costs often move slowly and may distort short-term inflation signals.
• Excluding shelter helps focus on more cyclical, responsive parts of inflation, especially wages and services.
This chart highlights the structural shift in inflation volatility after 2020. While inflation has come off its peak, both short-term and long-term measures of volatility remain significantly higher than in the past two decades. This implies greater uncertainty for central banks, markets, and risk management going forward.
Is INFLATION good now or is INFLATION VOLATILITY just abnormally high (chart)? Core inflation and wage are painting starkly different pictures with the gap between the two near widest in 4 years. Tariff uncertainty and supply shocks from structural transformations including #ai build-out, #aging population and #geopolitics rewiring mean we cannot be out of woods with inflation risk. See notes taking stock of macro and why the #Fed is unlikely to promise cuts in the near term, in comment.
1. Rolling Standard Deviation
• A “rolling” or “moving” standard deviation looks at how much data fluctuates within a moving time window.
• 1-year rolling means: at each point in time, it calculates the standard deviation over the past 12 months.
• 3-year rolling means: standard deviation over the past 36 months.
• Purpose: shows how volatile inflation is over time.
• Interpretation: A higher value means inflation has become more unstable or unpredictable.
⸻
2. CPI Excluding Shelter
• CPI = Consumer Price Index, a common measure of inflation.
• “Core services CPI” includes services like healthcare, education, transportation, etc.
• Excluding shelter removes housing-related costs like rent and homeownership costs.
• Why exclude shelter?
• Housing costs often move slowly and may distort short-term inflation signals.
• Excluding shelter helps focus on more cyclical, responsive parts of inflation, especially wages and services.
This chart highlights the structural shift in inflation volatility after 2020. While inflation has come off its peak, both short-term and long-term measures of volatility remain significantly higher than in the past two decades. This implies greater uncertainty for central banks, markets, and risk management going forward.
6 10